Nigeria's Agricultural Revolution: How Fertiliser Subsidies and mechanised Farming Are Reshaping the Sector

For a country with 84 million hectares of arable land, abundant water resources, and a climate capable of supporting a vast array of crops, Nigeria's historical dependence on food imports has always been a paradox. The country spends approximately $10 billion annually importing food products — rice, wheat, fish, dairy, and sugar — that it has the natural endowment to produce domestically. This import bill, which places enormous pressure on the naira and the balance of payments, has been a persistent drag on economic development.

Now, a combination of government policy, private investment, and the urgency created by the naira's depreciation is driving a meaningful shift. Nigeria's agricultural sector grew by an estimated 3.8 percent in 2025, outpacing the overall GDP growth rate of 3.1 percent and contributing approximately 24 percent to gross domestic product. While these numbers still fall short of the government's ambitious targets, they represent the strongest agricultural performance in nearly a decade.

The transformation is most visible in specific commodity chains: rice, maize, cassava, and poultry, where a combination of input subsidies, mechanisation incentives, and market access programmes has begun to close the gap between domestic production and national demand.

The Fertiliser Revolution

Perhaps the most impactful intervention has been the revitalisation of the National Fertiliser Initiative. In partnership with the Moroccan Office Cherifien des Phosphates, Nigeria's Indorama Eleme Petrochemicals, and the Dangote Group, the government has established a framework for domestic production of NPK fertiliser that has dramatically reduced costs and improved availability for farmers.

The Dangote Fertiliser Plant in Lagos, commissioned in 2022, is now operating at full capacity of 3 million metric tonnes per annum, making it the largest single-train urea plant in the world. The plant's output has reduced Nigeria's dependence on imported fertiliser by approximately 60 percent, bringing the average price of a 50-kilogramme bag of NPK fertiliser down from approximately 18,000 naira in 2023 to 11,500 naira by early 2026.

The government's fertiliser subsidy programme, administered through the Growth Enhancement Scheme, reached approximately 6 million farmers in the 2025 dry season planting cycle, providing subsidised inputs at a 40 percent discount to market prices. The programme, which utilises an electronic wallet system to verify farmer identity and prevent diversion, has been cited by the World Bank as a model for input subsidy delivery in developing countries.

"Fertiliser availability is the single most important factor in improving smallholder productivity," said Dr. Olawale Olayinka, director of the Institute of Agricultural Research at Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria. "We have seen yield increases of 30 to 50 percent among farmers who have consistent access to quality fertiliser. That translates directly into higher incomes and improved food security."

Mechanisation and Technology

Mechanised farming, long constrained by the high cost of equipment and the fragmented nature of landholding, is beginning to gain traction. The government's Agricultural Mechanisation Programme, launched in 2024 with a budget allocation of 120 billion naira, has established 120 mechanisation service centres across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Each centre is equipped with tractors, harvesters, planters, and irrigation equipment available for hire by smallholder farmers at subsidised rates.

The programme has been complemented by the emergence of agricultural technology startups that are bridging the gap between technology and traditional farming. FarmCrowdy, which connects smallholder farmers with investors who provide funding for inputs and mechanisation in exchange for a share of the harvest, has expanded to cover approximately 150,000 hectares across 15 states. ThriveAgric, another agritech platform, has introduced weather-indexed crop insurance and satellite-based farm monitoring to its network of 350,000 farmers.

Drone technology is also making inroads. In February 2026, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security launched a pilot programme using agricultural drones for crop surveillance, pest detection, and precision spraying in Kano, Kaduna, and Plateau states. The programme, implemented in partnership with the Chinese drone manufacturer DJI Agriculture, covered approximately 50,000 hectares in its first phase and is expected to scale to 200,000 hectares by the end of 2026.

Rice Self-Sufficiency on the Horizon

Rice, Nigeria's most consumed staple, has been the focal point of the agricultural revival. Domestic rice production increased from approximately 5.4 million metric tonnes in 2022 to an estimated 7.8 million metric tonnes in 2025, according to the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria. The country's annual rice consumption is estimated at approximately 8.5 million metric tonnes, meaning the self-sufficiency gap has narrowed to approximately 700,000 metric tonnes — a dramatic improvement from the 3 million metric tonne deficit that existed in 2015.

The Anchor Borrowers' Programme, introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2015 and expanded under the Tinubu administration, has been the primary vehicle for rice sector growth. The programme provides low-interest loans to smallholder rice farmers, linked to offtake agreements with large millers such as Olam, BUA, and Labana Rice. By March 2026, the programme had disbursed approximately 1.2 trillion naira to over 4.5 million rice farmers.

The quality gap between locally milled rice and imported varieties, once a significant barrier to consumer acceptance, has narrowed considerably. Modern rice mills with capacity for parboiling, destoning, and polishing — including the BUA Rice Mill in Kebbi State, the largest in Africa with a capacity of 200,000 metric tonnes per annum — now produce rice that competes favourably with imported brands on both quality and price.

Livestock and Dairy

The livestock sector, which accounts for approximately one-third of agricultural GDP, has received increased attention as the government seeks to reduce the $2.2 billion annual dairy import bill. The National Livestock Transformation Plan, which aims to establish ranching and grazing reserves as alternatives to open grazing, has made slow but measurable progress. Approximately 200,000 hectares of land have been designated for grazing reserves across 12 states, though implementation has been uneven and the programme faces resistance from some pastoralist communities.

In the poultry subsector, domestic production has grown by approximately 15 percent since 2023, driven by investments in feed milling and breeder farms. The Avian influenza outbreaks of 2024-2025, which led to the culling of approximately 3.5 million birds, caused temporary setbacks, but the sector has recovered and is projected to reach self-sufficiency in egg production by 2027.

Climate and Sustainability

Climate change poses an existential threat to Nigerian agriculture. The northern states, which produce the bulk of the country's cereal crops, are experiencing increasingly erratic rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and desertification. The Lake Chad basin, once a major agricultural zone, has lost approximately 90 percent of its surface area since the 1960s, displacing farming communities and disrupting food production.

The government's National Adaptation Plan for Agriculture, launched in 2025, prioritises climate-smart agricultural practices, including drought-resistant crop varieties, conservation agriculture, and agroforestry. The International Fund for Agricultural Development has committed $250 million to support climate adaptation among smallholder farmers in the northern states, with a focus on irrigation infrastructure and early warning systems.

The Road Ahead

Nigeria's agricultural revival is real but fragile. The gains of the past two years could be reversed by a single poor rainy season, a spike in input prices, or a shift in government priorities. The sector's long-term transformation will require sustained investment in research and development, rural infrastructure, extension services, and market access.

But the direction is clear. After decades of treating agriculture as a development afterthought, Nigeria is finally recognising that its 200 million people must be fed — and that the most reliable way to achieve food security is to grow the food at home. As Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari told reporters at a recent harvest celebration in Kano: "The era of importing what we can grow is ending. The future of Nigerian agriculture is the future of Nigeria itself."