The Draft Dilemma: Why Mid-Tier NBA Prospects Are Staying in School
The NBA's 2026 draft withdrawal deadline is approaching, and for a cohort of prospects ranked in the 6-to-15 range on consensus boards, the choice between staying in college and turning pro has never felt more precarious. With second-round guaranteed contracts shrinking and team scouting departments sharpening their evaluation protocols after a 2025 class that produced several high-profile misses, a growing number of draft-eligible players are concluding that the math does not add up in favour of their professional debut.
The decision for prospects outside the lottery is fundamentally different from the calculus facing top-five picks, who can reasonably expect fully guaranteed contracts and roster spots regardless of how their rookie season unfolds. For players drafted in the second round, the economics have grown increasingly brutal. A 2025 second-rounder could expect a partially guaranteed deal, with the remainder of their salary becoming guaranteed only if they survive roster cuts through October. The consequence is a cohort of players entering professional basketball on precarious financial footing, one bad training camp away from being waived without a full-season salary.
Staying in college offers a different value proposition. A player who uses an additional year to address a shooting flaw, refine his defensive footwork, or develop a more reliable handle can move from the second round to the first, from a partially guaranteed contract to a fully funded one. The differential in guaranteed income between the end of the first round and the start of the second can exceed several million dollars. That is not an abstraction; for a 20-year-old from a modest background, it is a life-altering sum.
What the 2025 Class Exposed
The 2026 draft conversation cannot be fully separated from the previous cycle. The 2025 class produced a notable cluster of second-round selections who failed to generate meaningful rotation minutes, prompting front offices across the league to reassess their evaluation frameworks. Scouts who backed certain prospects based on projected development arcs and positional size discovered that the professional game does not reward potential the way college basketball occasionally does.
The result is a more demanding evaluation environment heading into 2026. NBA teams have tightened their scrutiny of prospects' current production, demanding higher percentages from three-point range, more consistent closeouts on defence, and clearer evidence of offensive system comprehension. For a player whose primary appeal rests on projected improvement in these exact areas, the calculus leans sharply toward staying in school.
A player who cannot shoot efficiently from mid-range at the college level faces long odds of solving that problem in a professional strength-and-conditioning programme while simultaneously learning a new offensive system and adapting to the physical demands of the NBA. Scouts understand this intuitively, even if the prospect and his representation prefer a rosier framing. The 2025 class reminded the league that developmental timelines do not always compress on command.
The CBS Sports Draft Board Landscape
According to reporting from CBS Sports, Koa Peat and Milan Momcilovic lead a group of ten prospects who could benefit from an additional year of college basketball. Both players possess traits that NBA scouts value—Peat's inside-out versatility and Momcilovic's shooting mechanics—but neither has yet demonstrated the consistency that translates to guaranteed draft position. Their presence at the top of a "stay in school" list reflects the reality that draft position, not just draft inclusion, is what matters for financial security.
The broader pool of prospects CBS Sports identified includes players with varying degrees of draft readiness. Some have legitimate first-round arguments; others face second-round realities that make the professional debut a gamble rather than an opportunity. The common thread is uncertainty about where they land in a draft class that, by most scouting accounts, lacks the top-end depth that typically absorbs mid-tier prospects into the first round.
The NIL Complication
One structural change reshaping this decision is the rapid expansion of name, image, and likeness opportunities at major college programmes. A prospect at a high-revenue programme can now earn a meaningful supplemental income during an additional college season, softening the financial opportunity cost of not turning pro. This was not a factor in the same magnitude even three years ago, and it changes the relative attractiveness of a fifth year of college eligibility.
For some prospects, the NIL income available in a high-profile college programme exceeds the guaranteed portion of a second-round professional contract. The calculus becomes straightforward: stay in school, earn more guaranteed money through NIL and the possibility of improving draft stock, and avoid the scenario of being waived in October with no income and no remaining college eligibility.
This is not true for every prospect. Lottery picks have professional contracts that dwarf even the most generous NIL packages. But for the cohort of prospects this article concerns—those outside the lottery, uncertain of their round, uncertain of their guarantee—the NIL landscape tilts the balance toward patience.
The Forward View
The 2026 draft class will reveal whether this cohort of prospects made the correct assessment. If the players who stay in school improve their draft stock in 2025-26, the decision framework will be validated and we can expect more prospects in future cycles to adopt the same logic. If the players who enter the draft despite uncertain positioning find professional success, the conservative approach will look like overcaution.
The stakes are concrete. An incorrect assessment can cost a player millions in guaranteed income, alter his career trajectory, and leave him searching for a professional foothold that does not materialize. The decision demands more than scouting intuition; it requires honest accounting of one's current limitations and a realistic appraisal of the timeline for addressing them.
For now, the smart money, and the increasingly cautious money, is on staying in school.
This article draws on CBS Sports reporting as of 21 May 2026. Monexus monitors NBA Draft coverage across the professional and collegiate sports press.