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Israel is extending the Lebanon campaign. The market does not believe it ends this month.
Israeli strikes on Hezbollah continue into June, a Yemeni drone is intercepted, and a prediction market puts the odds of a Lebanese withdrawal this month at six percent. The signal is in the gap between rhetoric and expectations.
Wire provenance
This editorial synthesis draws on the following public wire/social posts:
- https://t.me/s/bricsnews
- https://t.me/s/bricsnews
- https://x.com/polymarket/status/
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